President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, saying its findings provide further evidence that his administration’s economic reforms are stabilising the economy, increasing government revenues and creating opportunities for sustained growth.
The report, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, indicates that Nigeria’s poverty rate has stabilised for the first time since 2019. The World Bank projects a gradual decline in poverty as economic growth begins to outpace population growth.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent during the same period in 2025, despite the effects of the Middle East conflict. Economic growth is projected to average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
Inflation also declined from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. However, higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have slowed further reductions. The World Bank expects inflation to fall to approximately 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external financial position improved, with its current account surplus rising to $12 billion, representing 7 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year earlier. External reserves also increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
The World Bank attributed these improvements partly to reforms introduced since 2023, which increased federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the biggest beneficiaries.
During the period, states increased capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms, directing much of the additional funding towards roads and transportation, agriculture, energy and housing. Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person increased in all but one state.
The report further revealed that internally generated revenue increased in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025. Nigeria’s overall public debt is also projected to decline from 40 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
Reacting to the findings, Tinubu said the removal of the petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and stronger fiscal discipline had improved government revenues, stabilised the economy and created more resources for all tiers of government to invest in development.
However, the President acknowledged that more work was needed to ensure the benefits of the reforms translate into improved living conditions, particularly through lower food prices and the creation of decent jobs for young Nigerians.
He reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda, promising to expand targeted cash transfers, which he said had reached more than 10 million households. Other priorities include accelerating compressed natural gas (CNG) deployment, boosting agricultural productivity and improving access to affordable healthcare and quality education.
Tinubu also urged state governments to manage their increased revenues prudently and prioritise projects that improve living standards, healthcare and education.
The President commended the Economic Management Team, led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, alongside state governors and other stakeholders, for their cooperation in implementing the reforms.
He expressed confidence that the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0 would accelerate the delivery of shared prosperity to Nigerians.